Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

Introduction: Goji berry (Lycium barbarum L.) is a famous edible and medicinal herb worldwide with considerable consumption. The recent cultivation of goji berries in the Daodi region was seriously reduced due to increased production costs and the influence of policy on preventing nongrain use of arable land in China. Consequently, production of Daodi goji berry was insufficient to meet market demands for high-quality medicinal materials. Searching for regions similar to the Daodi region was necessary.

Methods: The MaxEnt model was used to predicted the current and future potential regions suitable for goji berry in China based on the environmental characteristics of the Daodi region (including Zhongning County of Zhongwei prefecture-level city, and its surroundings), and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region.

Results: The results showed that when the parameters were FC = LQHP and RM = 2.1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the most critical variables shaping the distribution of Daodi goji berries. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the Daodi goji berry were 45,973.88 km², accounting for 0.48% of China's land area, which were concentrated in the central and western Ningxia Province (22,589.42 km²), and the central region of Gansu Province (18,787.07 km²) bordering western Ningxia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was higher than that under current climate conditions and reached the maximum under RCP 6.0 (91,256.42 km²) in the 2050s and RCP 8.5 (82,459.17 km²) in the 2070s. The expansion regions were mainly distributed in the northeast of the current suitable ranges, and the distributional centroids were mainly shifted to the northeast. The moderately and highly suitable overlapping habitats were mainly distributed in Baiyin (7,241.75 km²), Zhongwei (6,757.81 km²), and Wuzhong (5, 236.87 km²) prefecture-level cities.

Discussion: In this stduy, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to predict and analyze the suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. Our results indicate that climate warming is conducive to cultivating Daodi goji berry and will not cause a shift in the Daodi region. The goji berry produced in Baiyin could be used to satisfy the demand for high-quality medicinal materials. This study addresses the insufficient supply and guides the cultivation of Daodi goji berry.