Virtual water output intensifies the water scarcity in Northwest China: Current situation, problem analysis and countermeasures

With 80% water resources in the south and 65% arable land in the north, China is facing a rigorous challenge due to the spatial mismatch between water distribution and food & energy production to make a balanced development of economy and ecosystem. In the past decades, the northwest has played a prominent role in maintaining national food and energy security. However, the lack of water resources in this region poses a great threat to sustainable development. Based on this, this study quantitatively analyzed the evolution trend of water footprint (WF) of major crops and energy products in Northwest China from 2000 to 2015 and revealed the virtual water (VW) transfer pattern with commodity trade and its water resource stress caused by the virtual water output. The results show that, although the improvement of technology has greatly reduced the WF per unit production, the northwest region is still a net VW output area, whose net VW output associated with food and energy trade is increasing sharply from 287.2 × 10⁸ m³ (2000) to 328.5 × 10⁸ m³ (2015) with a growth rate of 14.4%, seriously aggravating the local water resource pressure. To ensure the water, food and energy safety of the northwest, we proposed countermeasures and suggestions on technological development and strategic planning, including water-saving technology promotion, industrial and agricultural structure optimization, and the coordinated management of physical and virtual water. The above findings provide a scientific reference to ensure the sustainable development of Northwest China.