Real-time monitoring of COVID-19 dynamics using automated trend fitting and anomaly detection.
Jombart T, Ghozzi S, Schumacher D, Taylor TJ, Leclerc QJ, Jit M, Flasche S, Greaves F, Ward T, Eggo RM, Nightingale E, Meakin S, Brady OJ; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group; Medley GF, Höhle M, Edmunds WJ.
Jombart T, et al.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021 Jul 19;376(1829):20200266. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0266. Epub 2021 May 31.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021.
PMID: 34053271
Free PMC article.
Our approach relies on automatically selecting the best (fitting or predicting) model from a range of user-defined time series models, excluding the most recent data points, to characterize the main trend in an incidence. We then derive prediction intervals and classify da …
Our approach relies on automatically selecting the best (fitting or predicting) model from a range of user-defined time series models, exclu …