A tool for a race against time: Dispersal simulations to support ongoing monitoring program of the invasive coral Tubastraea coccinea

Preventing, detecting, and monitoring invasive marine species is a big challenge as it is not possible to visualize all invasion extensions. Their early detection may be the best chance to achieve eradication. The Indo-pacific scleractinian coral Tubastraea coccinea invasion in the Atlantic dates from the late 1930s. Since then, disruptive populations were found along ~8.000 km of west Atlantic, and in the Canarian Islands of Spain (east Atlantic), related to vessel fouling in the oil and gas industry. Their impacts have been noticed from endemic species to ecosystems. In Brazil, initiatives to control Tubastraea spp. have been done mostly by local environmental managers and researchers, but recently a National Plan for Prevention, Control and Monitoring (NPPCM) for Tubastraea spp. was approved. We applied an Individual-based Model within the invasion history of Tubastraea coccinea in its southern distribution limit in the Atlantic, on the rocky shore of the Arvoredo Biological Marine Reserve. We indicated hotspots for the occurrence of possible emerging invasion sites in the region and expect to support ongoing monitoring programs in defining priority areas for their early detection. The model is easily replicated and might be a valuable tool for decision makers.