How will hydro-energy generation of the Nepalese Himalaya vary in the future? A climate change perspective

Despite being one of the proven clean-energy technologies, hydroelectricity is losing attention in global research. Hydroelectricity is extremely important for countries possessing the required water resources, already heavily reliant on it and those lacking the financial capacity to invest in other expensive energy technologies. This study assessed the possible impact of climate change (CC) on hydro-energy generation in the Nepalese Himalaya (possessing eight peaks out of 14 over 8000 m) with a tremendous hydropower potential (∼50,000 MW). A planned 1200 MW storage type Budhigandaki Hydroelectricity Project is taken as a case. We estimated the energy generation for the baseline as well as 10 CC scenarios considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales for the mid-century. Results show that energy generation is highly dependent on the reservoir operating rule. The average annual energy generation is expected to vary within -5 to +12% of the base case in the mid-century, with significant variations across the months. We also infer that designing hydro-projects based on ensembled climate values could lead to a "rosy" but less probable and risky picture of energy generation in the future. Therefore, assessment of a wide spectrum of plausible CC scenarios are recommended. Storage type projects with provision of flexible operating rules considering finer temporal resolution and allocation to competing users (in case of multipurpose projects) supported by appropriate policies are desirable for climate resiliency. Complementing the existing energy generation mix with other technologies in areas where hydroelectricity is expected to undergo adverse impacts of CC is warranted for attaining future energy security and environmental safeguarding. Possibility of additional energy due to CC is a strong motivation for this region to focus on hydroelectricity development in the future.