Are electric vehicles really the optimal option for the transportation sector in China to approach pollution reduction and carbon neutrality goals?

Profound worldwide fleet electrification is thought to be the primary route for achieving the target of carbon neutrality. However, when and how electrification can help mitigate environmental impacts and carbon emissions in the transport sector remains unclear. Herein, the overall life-cycle environmental impacts and carbon saving range of two typical A-class vehicles in China, including electric vehicle (EV) and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), were quantified by the life cycle assessment model for endpoint damage with localization parameters. The results showed that the EV outperformed the ICEV for the total environment impact after a travel distance of 39,153 km and for carbon emissions after 32,292 km. The ICEV was more carbon-friendly only when the driving distance was less than 3229 km/a. Considering a full lifespan travel distance of 150,000 km, the whole life-cycle average environmental impacts of EV and ICEV were calculated as 8.6 and 17.5 mPt/km, respectively, but the EV had 2.3 times higher impacts than the ICEV in the production phase. In addition, the EV unit carbon emission was 140 g/km, 46.8% lower than that of the ICEV. Finally, three potential reduction scenarios were considered: cleaner power mix, energy efficiency improvement and composite scenario. These scenarios contributed 19.1%, 13.0% and 32.1% reductions, respectively. However, achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals in China remains a great challenge unless fossil fuels are replaced by renewable energy. The research can provide scientific reference for the method and practice of emission reduction link identification, eco-driving choice and emission reduction path formulation.