Study of the cross-market effects of Brexit based on the improved symbolic transfer entropy GARCH model-An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations

PLoS One. 2017 Aug 17;12(8):e0183194. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0183194. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

In this paper, we study the cross-market effects of Brexit on the stock and bond markets of nine major countries in the world. By incorporating information theory, we introduce the time-varying impact weights based on symbolic transfer entropy to improve the traditional GARCH model. The empirical results show that under the influence of Brexit, flight-to-quality not only commonly occurs between the stocks and bonds of each country but also simultaneously occurs among different countries. We also find that the accuracy of the time-varying symbolic transfer entropy GARCH model proposed in this paper has been improved compared to the traditional GARCH model, which indicates that it has a certain practical application value.

MeSH terms

  • Empirical Research
  • European Union
  • Investments*
  • Models, Economic*
  • United Kingdom

Grants and funding

Our work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 71171025) and National Social Science Foundation of China (no. 14BJY174).