Surface runoff response to long-term land use changes: Spatial rearrangement of runoff-generating areas reveals a shift in flash flood drivers

Nowadays, rapid growths of urban areas and associated land use/land cover (LULC) changes notably affect the surface runoff response to rainfall in urbanised catchments. This effect of urbanisation on surface runoff is frequently addressed since it relates to the increasing incidence of pluvial floods worldwide. Studies on this issue commonly assess runoff changes over several most recent decades. However, human-induced factors likely resulted in increased surface runoff and associated flash floods in rural catchments even in the past centuries. Such long-term changes have been rarely studied and thus are not well documented. This paper aims to fill this gap and assess the surface runoff response to LULC changes in a small catchment in southwestern Slovakia over more than two centuries. To meet this goal, we applied the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. We mapped past (1784) and present (2018) LULC classes based on historical maps and modern remote sensing data. Then, we estimated surface runoff depths for specific design rainstorms for both periods by executing CN method equations in the ArcGIS environment. Results revealed significant changes in surface runoff conditions between evaluated periods. In total, surface runoff magnitudes increased by ~230 and ~ 130% for 40- and 65-mm design rainstorms, respectively, compared to 1784. Moreover, surface runoff values show different spatial patterns on historical and present-day output raster images revealing spatial redistribution of runoff-enhancing and runoff-preventing areas during the evaluated period. Although both infiltration-enhancing and runoff-enhancing effects of LULC changes were identified, the latter effect associated with urbanised lowland areas was recognised as prevailing at present. In contrast, runoff-promoting conditions were associated with hilly vineyard areas in the past. These findings likely have important implications for understanding the past and present LULC-based controls of surface runoff generation and flash floods initiation.