Extended postoperative care and intensive care unit capacity is limited and efficient patient allocation is mandatory. This study aims to develop an effective yet simple score to predict indication for extended postoperative care, as there is a lack of objective criteria for early prediction of admission to extended care in surgical patients. This prospective observational study was divided into two periods (Period 1: Extended Postoperative Care-Score (EXPO)-Score generation; Period 2: EXPO-Score validation) and it was performed at a tertiary university center in Germany. A total of 4042 (Period 1) and 2198 (Period 2) adult patients ≥ 18 years old receiving elective or emergency surgery were included in this study. After identifying patient- and surgery-related risk factors by an expert panel, the EXPO-Score was developed through logistic regression from data of Period 1 and validated in Period 2. Three risk factors are sufficient for generating a reliable predictive EXPO-Score: (1) the American Society of Anesthesiologists' (ASA) physical status, (2) cardiopulmonary physical exercise status expressed in metabolic equivalents (MET), and (3) the type of surgery. The score threshold (0.23) has a sensitivity of 0.87, a specificity of 0.91, and an accuracy of 0.90 for predicting indication for extended postoperative care. The EXPO-Score provides a validated, early collectable, and easy-to-use tool for predicting indication of extended postoperative care in adult surgical patients.
Keywords: ICU Bed Shortage; Intensive Care Unit; extended postoperative care; objective allocation; patient pathway; patient safety; risk score.