An Analysis of Large-Scale Forced Migration in Africa

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Oct 30;16(21):4210. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16214210.

Abstract

In this paper, human security-related causes of large-scale forced migration (LSFM) in Africa are investigated for the period 2011-2017. As distinct from the conventional understanding of (national) security, human security involves economic, public health, environmental and other aspects of people's wellbeing. Testing various hypotheses, we have found that civil and interstate conflicts, lack of democracy and poverty are the most important drivers of mass population displacements, whereas climate change has an indirect effect on the dependent variable. As a policy tool, foreign aid is also tested to see if it lowers the probability of LSFM. Our findings have implications for policy planning, since the conventional understanding of security falls short of addressing LSFM without taking various aspects of human security into account.

Keywords: Africa; climate change; human security; migration; public health; violence.

MeSH terms

  • Africa
  • Armed Conflicts / statistics & numerical data*
  • Climate Change
  • Developing Countries / statistics & numerical data*
  • Economics
  • Emigration and Immigration / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • International Cooperation*
  • Life Expectancy
  • Logistic Models
  • Politics*
  • Poverty / statistics & numerical data*
  • Public Health Administration / standards