Trends in heart failure between 2016 and 2022 in Türkiye (TRends-HF): a nationwide retrospective cohort study of 85 million individuals across entire population of all ages

Background: Data on the burden of heart failure (HF) outside western countries are limited, but available data suggest it may present differently in other countries. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, prevalence, and survival rates of HF in Türkiye, with a specific focus on how these rates vary according to age, sex, comorbidities, and socioeconomic status (SES).

Methods: We harnessed the extensive National Electronic Database of the Turkish Ministry of Health, covering Turkey's entire population from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2022, to identify 2,722,151 cases of HF and their associated comorbidities using ICD-10 codes. Analyzing the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality, our study utilized anonymized data to examine patient demographics, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, and survival patterns, employing statistical techniques to delve into relationships and trends. The data were segmented by gender, socioeconomic status, and age, involving cross-tabulations and statistical metrics to explore connections, odds ratios, and survival rates.

Findings: The estimated prevalence of HF was 2.114% in Türkiye at the end of 2022, with an annual incidence ranging between 3.00 and 6.06 per 1000 person years. Females were older than males (69.8 ± 13.9 years vs. 66.8 ± 13.9 years, respectively). The most common comorbidities were congenital heart diseases and anemia under the age of 20, and hypertension and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the adult population. Only 23.6% (643,159/2,722,151) of patients were treated with any triple guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) and 3.6% (96,751/2,722,151) of patients were on quadruple GDMT. The survival rates for patients with HF at 1, 5, and 7 years were 83.3% (95% CI: 83.2-83.3), 61.5% (95% CI: 61.4-61.6), and 57.7% (95% CI: 57.6-57.8) among females, and 82.1% (95% CI: 82.0-82.2), 58.2% (95% CI: 58.1-58.3), and 54.2% (95% CI: 54.0-54.3) among males. Despite a tendency for an increase from the highest to the lowest SES, the prevalence of HF and mortality were paradoxically lowest in the lowest SES region.

Interpretation: The prevalence, incidence, and survival rates of HF in Türkiye were comparable to western countries, despite the notable difference of HF onset occurring 8-10 years earlier in the Turkish population. Drug usage statistics indicate there is a need for effective strategies to improve treatment with GDMT.

Funding: None.