Ecological Niche Modeling of Aedes and Culex Mosquitoes: A Risk Map for Chikungunya and West Nile Viruses in Zambia

Rachel Milomba Velu; Geoffrey Kwenda; Samuel Bosomprah; Moses Ngongo Chisola; Michelo Simunyandi; Caroline Cleopatra Chisenga; Flavien Nsoni Bumbangi; Nicholus Chintu Sande; Limonty Simubali; Monicah Mirai Mburu; John Tembo; Matthew Bates; Martin Chitolongo Simuunza; Roma Chilengi; Yasuko Orba; Hirofumi Sawa; Edgar Simulundu

doi:10.3390/v15091900

Ecological Niche Modeling of Aedes and Culex Mosquitoes: A Risk Map for Chikungunya and West Nile Viruses in Zambia

Viruses. 2023 Sep 8;15(9):1900. doi: 10.3390/v15091900.

Authors

Rachel Milomba Velu^{1

2}, Geoffrey Kwenda³, Samuel Bosomprah^{1

4}, Moses Ngongo Chisola⁵, Michelo Simunyandi¹, Caroline Cleopatra Chisenga¹, Flavien Nsoni Bumbangi⁶, Nicholus Chintu Sande⁷, Limonty Simubali⁸, Monicah Mirai Mburu⁸, John Tembo⁹, Matthew Bates^{9

10}, Martin Chitolongo Simuunza^{2

11}, Roma Chilengi^{1

12}, Yasuko Orba^{13

14

15}, Hirofumi Sawa^{2

14

15

16

17}, Edgar Simulundu^{2

8}

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 34681, Zambia.
² Department of Disease Control, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 32379, Zambia.
³ Department of Biomedical Sciences, School of Health Sciences, University of Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 50110, Zambia.
⁴ Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Accra P.O. Box LG13, Ghana.
⁵ Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, School of Natural Sciences, University of Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 32379, Zambia.
⁶ Department of Medicine and Clinical Sciences, School of Medicine, Eden University, Lusaka P.O. Box 37727, Zambia.
⁷ National Malaria Elimination Centre, Chainama Hills Hospital Grounds, Lusaka P.O. Box 32509, Zambia.
⁸ Macha Research Trust, Choma P.O. Box 630166, Zambia.
⁹ HerpeZ, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka 10101, Zambia.
¹⁰ Joseph Banks Laboratories, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Lincoln, Lincolnshire LN6 7TS, UK.
¹¹ Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases of Humans and Animals, University of Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 32379, Zambia.
¹² Zambia National Public Health Institute, Ministry of Health, Lusaka P.O. Box 51925, Zambia.
¹³ Division of Molecular Pathobiology, International Institute for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, N 20 W10, Kita-Ku, Sapporo 001-0020, Japan.
¹⁴ International Collaboration Unit, International Institute for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido 060-0808, Japan.
¹⁵ One Health Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 001-0020, Japan.
¹⁶ Institute for Vaccine Research and Development, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 001-0021, Japan.
¹⁷ International Collaboration Unit, Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA.

Abstract

The circulation of both West Nile Virus (WNV) and Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in humans and animals, coupled with a favorable tropical climate for mosquito proliferation in Zambia, call for the need for a better understanding of the ecological and epidemiological factors that govern their transmission dynamics in this region. This study aimed to examine the contribution of climatic variables to the distribution of Culex and Aedes mosquito species, which are potential vectors of CHIKV, WNV, and other arboviruses of public-health concern. Mosquitoes collected from Lusaka as well as from the Central and Southern provinces of Zambia were sorted by species within the Culex and Aedes genera, both of which have the potential to transmit viruses. The MaxEnt software was utilized to predict areas at risk of WNV and CHIKV based on the occurrence data on mosquitoes and environmental covariates. The model predictions show three distinct spatial hotspots, ranging from the high-probability regions to the medium- and low-probability regions. Regions along Lake Kariba, the Kafue River, and the Luangwa Rivers, as well as along the Mumbwa, Chibombo, Kapiri Mposhi, and Mpika districts were predicted to be suitable habitats for both species. The rainfall and temperature extremes were the most contributing variables in the predictive models.

Keywords: Aedes; Chikungunya virus; Culex; West Nile virus; Zambia; arbovirus; ecological niche modeling.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Aedes*
Animals
Chikungunya Fever* / epidemiology
Chikungunya virus*
Culex*
Ecosystem
Humans
Mosquito Vectors
West Nile virus*
Zambia / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Disease of Humans and Animals (ACEIDHA) project (grant number P151847), funded by the World Bank. The work was also supported by the Japan Program for Infectious Diseases Research and Infrastructure (JP21wm0125008) from the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) and by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP2) program under the PANDORA-IDNET Consortium (EDCTP Reg/Grant RIA2016E-1609). The funders had no role in the study design, collection, analysis and interpretation of data, manuscript writing, and the decision to submit the article for publication.