Risk scenarios are caused by the convergence of a hazard with a potentially affected system in a specific place and time. One urban planning goal is to prevent environmental hazards, such as those generated by chemical accidents, from reaching human settlements, as they can cause public health issues. However, in many developing countries, due to their strategic positioning in global value chains, the quick and easy access to labor pools, and competitive production costs, urban sprawls have engulfed industrial areas, exposing residential conurbations to environmental hazards. This case study analyzes the spatial configuration of accidental chemical risk scenarios in three major Mexican metropolitan areas: Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey. Spatial analyses use an areal locations of hazardous atmosphere (ALOHA) dispersion model to represent the spatial effects of high-risk industrial activities in conurbations and the potentially affected populations vulnerable to chemical hazards. Complementary geostatistical correlation analyses use population data, marginalization indexes, and industrial clustering sectors to identify trends that can lead to comprehensive environmental justice approaches. In addition, the marginalization degree of inhabitants evaluates social inequalities concerning chemical risk scenarios.
Keywords: environmental risk analysis; land use planning; multidimensional spatial analysis; risk scenarios.