Fourier Spot Volatility Estimator: Asymptotic Normality and Efficiency with Liquid and Illiquid High-Frequency Data

PLoS One. 2015 Sep 30;10(9):e0139041. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0139041. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

The recent availability of high frequency data has permitted more efficient ways of computing volatility. However, estimation of volatility from asset price observations is challenging because observed high frequency data are generally affected by noise-microstructure effects. We address this issue by using the Fourier estimator of instantaneous volatility introduced in Malliavin and Mancino 2002. We prove a central limit theorem for this estimator with optimal rate and asymptotic variance. An extensive simulation study shows the accuracy of the spot volatility estimates obtained using the Fourier estimator and its robustness even in the presence of different microstructure noise specifications. An empirical analysis on high frequency data (U.S. S&P500 and FIB 30 indices) illustrates how the Fourier spot volatility estimates can be successfully used to study intraday variations of volatility and to predict intraday Value at Risk.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Models, Chemical*
  • Volatilization

Grants and funding

The research leading to these results has been partially supported by the European 543 Union, Seventh Framework Programme FP7, under grant agreement FinMaP no. 612955.