Estimating and predicting the temporal information of apartment burglaries that possess imprecise time stamps: A comparative study using eight different temporal approximation methods in Vienna, Austria

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 19;16(8):e0253591. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253591. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

This research compares and evaluates different approaches to approximate offense times of crimes. It contributes to and extends all previously proposed naïve and aoristic temporal approximation methods and one recent study [1] that showed that the addition of historical crimes with accurately known time stamps to temporal approximation methods can outperform all traditional approximation methods. It is paramount to work with crime data that possess precise temporal information to conduct reliable (spatiotemporal) analysis and modeling. This study contributes to and extends existing studies on temporal analysis. One novel and one relatively new temporal approximation methods are introduced that rely on weighting aoristic scores with historic offenses with exactly known offense times. It is hypothesized that these methods enhance the accuracy of the temporal approximation. In total, eight different methods are evaluated for apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, for yearly and seasonal differences. Results show that the one novel and one relatively new method applied in this research outperform all other existing approximation methods to estimate and predict offense times. These two methods are particularly useful for both researchers and practitioners, who often work with temporally imprecise crime data.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Austria
  • Crime*
  • Housing
  • Humans
  • Seasons
  • Theft
  • Time Factors

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) through the Doctoral College GIScience (DK W 1237-N23) at the University of Salzburg. Co-author Philip Glasner is employed by Carl Zeiss GmbH. Carl Zeiss GmbH provided support in the form of salary for author PG, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Co-author Lukas Oswald is employed by Infineon Technologies IT-Services GmbH. Infineon Technologies IT-Services GmbH provided support in the form of salary for author LO, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section.