Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 18;19(10):6119. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19106119.

Abstract

In the face of great uncertainty and a global crisis from COVID-19, mathematical and epidemiologic COVID-19 models proliferated during the pandemic. Yet, many models were not created with the explicit audience of policymakers, the intention of informing specific scenarios, or explicit communication of assumptions, limitations, and complexities. This study presents a case study of the roles, uses, and approaches to COVID-19 modeling and forecasting in one state jurisdiction in the United States. Based on an account of the historical real-world events through lived experiences, we first examine the specific modeling considerations used to inform policy decisions. Then, we review the real-world policy use cases and key decisions that were informed by modeling during the pandemic including the role of modeling in informing planning for hospital capacity, isolation and quarantine facilities, and broad public communication. Key lessons are examined through the real-world application of modeling, noting the importance of locally tailored models, the role of a scientific and technical advisory group, and the challenges of communicating technical considerations to a public audience.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; governance; hospital; isolation and quarantine; media and communication; modeling; pandemic; pandemic preparedness; public health planning.

Publication types

  • Review
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • Hawaii / epidemiology
  • Health Policy
  • Humans
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Policy Making
  • United States

Grants and funding

T.H. Lee and V.Y. Fan gratefully acknowledge extramural funds from the Hawaii State Department of Health Behavioral Health Administration Alcohol and Drug Abuse Division (ADAD-MOA-SP-19-01, ASO Log No. 15-074). M. Chyba gratefully acknowledges extramural funds from the National Science Foundation, award #2030789. V.Y. Fan and M. Chyba gratefully acknowledge support from the Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Funds via the Governor’s Office Hawaii Department of Defense and the University of Hawaii at Manoa Provost’s Office.