Posterior National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale Improves Prognostic Accuracy in Posterior Circulation Stroke

Background and purpose: The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) underestimates clinical severity in posterior circulation stroke and patients presenting with low NIHSS may be considered ineligible for reperfusion therapies. This study aimed to develop a modified version of the NIHSS, the Posterior NIHSS (POST-NIHSS), to improve NIHSS prognostic accuracy for posterior circulation stroke patients with mild-moderate symptoms.

Methods: Clinical data of consecutive posterior circulation stroke patients with mild-moderate symptoms (NIHSS <10), who were conservatively managed, were retrospectively analyzed from the Basilar Artery Treatment and Management registry. Clinical features were assessed within 24 hours of symptom onset; dysphagia was assessed by a speech therapist within 48 hours of symptom onset. Random forest classification algorithm and constrained optimization were used to develop the POST-NIHSS in the derivation cohort. The POST-NIHSS was then validated in a prospective cohort. Poor outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score ≥3 at 3 months.

Results: We included 202 patients (mean [SD] age 63 [14] years, median NIHSS 3 [interquartile range, 1-5]) in the derivation cohort and 65 patients (mean [SD] age 63 [16] years, median NIHSS 2 [interquartile range, 1-4]) in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, age, NIHSS, abnormal cough, dysphagia and gait/truncal ataxia were ranked as the most important predictors of functional outcome. POST-NIHSS was calculated by adding 5 points for abnormal cough, 4 points for dysphagia, and 3 points for gait/truncal ataxia to the baseline NIHSS. In receiver operating characteristic analysis adjusted for age, POST-NIHSS area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.73-0.87) versus NIHSS area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.83), P=0.03. In the validation cohort, POST-NIHSS area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.69-0.94) versus NIHSS area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.87), P=0.04.

Conclusions: POST-NIHSS showed higher prognostic accuracy than NIHSS and may be useful to identify posterior circulation stroke patients with NIHSS <10 at higher risk of poor outcome.