How and when glacial runoff is important: Tracing dynamics of meltwater and rainfall contribution to river runoff from headwaters to lowland in the Caucasus Mountains

As glacier degradation is intensifying worldwide, understanding how and when glacial runoff is important becomes imperative for economic planning and societal adaptation in response to climate change. This research highlights a probable emergence of new low-flow periods, ranging from one to several weeks, with an anticipated 50-90 % reduction in runoff even in major rivers originating in glacierized mountains by the mid to late 21th century. While the predicted decline in annual and monthly runoff appears moderate for most glaciated regions globally, the emergence of new deglaciation-induced summer low flow periods could create critical "bottle necks" constraining effective water resources management. In this study, a nested catchment approach (7.6-2259 km²) in conjunction with an isotopic tracer method (D, ¹⁸O), was employed to quantify the seasonal dynamics of snow and glacial meltwater and rainfall contribution to runoff across various scales of river catchments for the underreported Caucasus Mountains. Although the contribution of meltwater was predictably dominant in the headwaters (75-100 %), it still constituted a substantial 50-60 % of river runoff in the lower reaches most of the time from June to September. While the relative capacity for rainwater storage was found to significantly increase with watershed scale, during weeks devoid of noteworthy rainfall, the runoff in river basins with a mere 7 % glaciation basically entirely consists of what is formed in the glacierized headwaters. The glacial runoff was prevalent in the melt component from late July/early August to mid-September: not less than 30-60 % to the total runoff in the headwaters and 30-40 % in the lower reaches. An approach is proposed to account for the spatial heterogeneity of stable water isotopic content within snow cover and glacier ice. Sources of uncertainties and soundness of assumptions typically used for isotopic hydrograph separation are discussed with particular consideration given to the study objectives.