R 0 estimation for COVID-19 pandemic through exponential fit

Zheng Mingliang; Theodore E Simos; Charalampos Tsitouras

doi:10.1002/mma.7878

R ₀ estimation for COVID-19 pandemic through exponential fit

Math Methods Appl Sci. 2022 Feb;45(3):1632-1639. doi: 10.1002/mma.7878. Epub 2021 Oct 12.

Authors

Zheng Mingliang¹, Theodore E Simos^{2

3

4

5

6}, Charalampos Tsitouras⁷

Affiliations

¹ College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Taihu University of Wuxi Wuxi 214064 China.
² College of Applied Mathematics Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225 China.
³ Scientific and Educational Center "Digital Industry" South Ural State University 76 Lenin Ave., 454 080 Chelyabinsk Russia.
⁴ Department of Medical Research China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University Taichung Taiwan.
⁵ Data Recovery Key Laboratory of Sichun Province Neijing Normal University Neijiang China.
⁶ Section of Mathematics, Department of Civil Engineering Democritus University of Thrace Xanthi Greece.
⁷ General Department National and Kapodistrian University of Athens GR 34400, Euripus campus Greece.

Abstract

We provide an easy and accurate method for approximating the reproduction number R ₀ defined in an SIR epidemic model. At first, we present a formula extracting the exact R ₀ in case of constant rates of infection and recovery assumed in an SIR model. Then, we proceed proposing an exponential fitting to various data taken from the real-world epidemics. Certain applications for current COVID outbreak are considered, and figures describing the fluctuation of R ₀ in various countries are given.

Keywords: COVID‐19 outbreak; SIR epidemic model; exponential fitting; initial value problem.