Water Supply Planning in the Face of Drought and Ecosystem Flows: Examining the Impact of the Bay-Delta Plan on Bay Area Water Supply

In California, recent Bay-Delta Plan legislation attempts to balance water supply and ecosystem protection by requiring 40% of the flow to remain in-stream in the Tuolumne River from February through June. Serious questions remain about what this means for the Bay Area water supply, especially during drought. Our work develops a new approach to analyze how in-stream flow policy coupled with climate change could impact regional water supply over the coming decades. Results show that the new in-stream flow demand would exceed urban water deliveries in a typical year. In wet years, water supply performance is minimally impacted, but in drought, the policy can lead to less water in storage, delayed reservoir recovery, and increased time at critically low storage. Storage impact exceeding 50 000 acre-feet (60 million m³) is anticipated with at least 18% frequency, demonstrating that, climate uncertainty notwithstanding, this impact must be planned for and managed to ensure a reliable future water supply.