The structure of near misses and occupational accidents in the polish construction industry

Near misses are referred to in literature as precursors of occupational accidents. These events, and their relationships with occupational accidents in various economic sectors have been the subject of research in several countries around the world. In Poland, there has not been a lot of research with regards to near misses in the construction industry, and the published materials are of a very general nature. This article aims to fill the existing research gap regarding the relationship between near misses and occupational accidents in the Polish construction industry. The aim of the research presented in the article was to identify the qualitative and quantitative structure of hazardous events in the construction industry, and to estimate the a posteriori probability of the occurrence of such events. The research was carried out on the basis of information obtained from the hazardous event registration system from a large Polish enterprise that carried out construction works in Poland in the years 2015-2022. Identified dangerous events in the construction industry were divided into two generic groups, i.e. occupational accidents and near misses. Within each group, eight categories of hazardous events were identified, and subcategories were defined within each category. The power of each set and subset of events was then calculated. The posterior probability of the occurrence of events classified into individual sets was estimated using Bayes' theorem. Cross-validation of the obtained results was performed. Conclusions resulting from the conducted analyzes were formulated. The most common category of the analyzed dangerous events in the construction industry is "being hit by objects"; "being run over/falling over" and "work environment". Knowledge of the most common causes of near misses will allow actions that aim to reduce the number of occupational accidents to be determined.