The feasibility of risk assessment of a Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) outbreak was analyzed by means of landscape and weather characteristics and tree condition parameters. Difficulties in detecting forest pest outbreaks (especially in Siberian conditions) are associated with the inability to conduct regular ground surveillance in taiga territories, which generally occupy more than 2 million km2. Our analysis of characteristics of Siberian silk moth outbreak zones under mountainous taiga conditions showed that it is possible to distinguish an altitudinal belt between 400 and 800 m above sea level where an outbreak develops and trees are damaged. It was found that to assess the resistance of forest stands to pest attacks, researchers can employ new parameters: namely, characteristics of a response of remote sensing variables to changes in land surface temperature. Using these parameters, it is possible to identify in advance (2-3 years before an outbreak) forest stands that are not resistant to the pest. Thus, field studies in difficult-to-access taiga forests are not needed to determine these parameters, and hence the task of monitoring outbreaks of forest insects is simplified substantially.
Keywords: forecast; forest insect; forest stand; monitoring; population outbreak; remote sensing data.