Assessing coastal vulnerability and land use to sea level rise in Jeddah province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Abdulrazak H Almaliki; Bilel Zerouali; Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos; Abdulrhman A Almaliki; Richarde Marques da Silva; Sherif S M Ghoneim; Enas Ali

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18508

Assessing coastal vulnerability and land use to sea level rise in Jeddah province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Heliyon. 2023 Jul 23;9(8):e18508. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18508. eCollection 2023 Aug.

Authors

Abdulrazak H Almaliki¹, Bilel Zerouali², Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos³, Abdulrhman A Almaliki⁴, Richarde Marques da Silva⁵, Sherif S M Ghoneim⁶, Enas Ali⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. BOX 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia.
² Vegetal Chemistry-Water-Energy Laboratory, Department of Hydraulic, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Hassiba Benbouali, University of Chlef, B.P. 78C, Ouled Fares, 02180, Chlef, Algeria.
³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, 58051-900 João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
⁴ Department of Computer Science, Swansea University, Swansea, Wales, UK.
⁵ Department of Geoscience, Federal University of Paraíba, 58051-900 João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
⁶ Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. BOX 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia.
⁷ Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Future University in Egypt, New Cairo 11835, Egypt.

Abstract

Sea level rise is one of the most serious outcomes of increasing temperatures, leading to coastal flooding, beach erosion, freshwater contamination, loss of coastal habitats, increased soil salinity, and risk of damage to coastal infrastructures. This study estimates the vulnerability to inundation for 2100 in coastal zones in Jeddah Province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios of 1, 2, 5, and 10 m. The predicted flooding was estimated using a combination of factors, including SLR, the bathtub model, digital elevation model, climate scenarios, and land use and land cover. The climate scenarios used were Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 1.9, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The results of the SLR scenarios of 1, 2, 5, and 10 m revealed that 1.6, 4.7, 14.9, and 30.6% (or 88, 214, 679, 1398 km²) of the study area's coast could be classified as inundated areas. The various SLR scenarios can inundate 3.3 to 34% of the road area/length. The inundated built-up and road areas were estimated to range between 0.31 and 0.79 km², accounting respectively for 1.18 to 3.01% of the total class areas for 1-meter and 2-meter SLR scenarios. In contrast, the inundated area will be significant in the situation of 5 and 10 m SLR scenarios. Regarding the case of a 10-meter SLR scenario, the inundation will negatively impact the built-up and road infrastructure areas, inundating 8.9 km², with industrial infrastructures affected by inundation estimated at 0.21 km², followed by green space infrastructures at 0.013 km². The spatial information based on various SLR scenario impact mapping for Jeddah Province can be highly valuable for decision-makers to better plan future civil engineering structures within the framework of sustainable development.

Keywords: Decision-makers; Eight-side rule; Flooding modeling; Infrastructures; Inundated; Natural hazards; Sea level predicted; Sustainable development.