To assess the value of p53 mutations in predicting the progression of superficial bladder cancer [transitional cell carcinoma (TCC)] and to define exactly when p53 mutations occur in the process of tumor progression, 80 consecutive bladder washings from 26 high-risk (indicated by quantitative karyometric analysis) superficial TCC patients were examined by single-strand conformation polymorphism. Six of 13 patients who experienced clinical progression (progression to T2 or higher) were found to have a p53 mutation in one or more of their bladder washings. In the control group (no progression to invasive disease), only 1 of 13 patients had a p53 mutation. For these high-risk superficial TCC patients, the occurrence of a p53 mutation has a positive predictive value of 86% for the progression of disease. A negative predictive value of 63% was observed. Moreover, because p53 mutations were found in samples prior to progression (mean, 8 months), they could identify patients who need changes in their treatment strategies to prevent progression to invasive disease. Despite these promising results, it is obvious that to increase not only the positive predictive value but especially the negative predictive value of this procedure to predict progression, additional prognostic markers are still needed.