To explore the natural history of critically ill patients with acute renal failure due to acute tubular necrosis, we evaluated 256 patients enrolled in the placebo arm of a randomized clinical trial. Death and the composite outcome, death or the provision of dialysis, were determined with follow-up to 60 d. The relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) associated with routinely available demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were estimated using proportional hazards regression. Ninety-three (36%) deaths were documented; an additional 52 (20%) patients who survived received dialysis. Predictors of mortality included male gender (RR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.21 to 3.36), oliguria (RR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.43 to 3.55), mechanical ventilation (RR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.93), acute myocardial infarction (RR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.85 to 5.31), acute stroke or seizure (RR, 3.08; 95% CI, 1.56 to 6.06), chronic immunosuppression (RR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.16 to 4.88), hyperbilirubinemia (RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.08 per 1 mg/dl increase in total bilirubin) and metabolic acidosis (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90 to 0.99 per 1 mEq/L increase in serum bicarbonate concentration). Predictors of death or the provision of dialysis were oliguria (RR, 5.95; 95% CI, 3.96 to 8.95), mechanical ventilation (RR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.21), acute myocardial infarction (RR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.24 to 3.07), arrhythmia (RR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.19), and hypoalbuminemia (RR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.74 per 1 g/dl increase in serum albumin concentration). Neither mortality nor the provision of dialysis was related to patient age. These observations can be used to estimate risk early in the course of acute tubular necrosis. Furthermore, these and related models may be used to adjust for case-mix variation in quality improvement efforts, and to objectively stratify patients in future intervention trials aimed at favorably altering the course of hospital-acquired acute renal failure.