Risk analysis of quarantine station performance: a case study of the importation of equine infectious anemia virus-infected horses into California

J Vet Diagn Invest. 1998 Jan;10(1):11-6. doi: 10.1177/104063879801000103.

Abstract

We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • California
  • Computer Simulation
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Equine Infectious Anemia / epidemiology
  • Equine Infectious Anemia / prevention & control*
  • Equine Infectious Anemia / transmission*
  • Horses
  • Lentivirus / isolation & purification
  • Prevalence
  • Quarantine / veterinary*
  • Risk Assessment