Objective: To optimise the indication and time for operation for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), we analysed whether or not serum-elastin-peptides (SEP) could be a potential predictor for expansion.
Materials and methods: Four thousand, four hundred and four 65-73-year-old males were invited for screening to detect an AAA. Three thousand, three hundred and thirty-four attended (76%). One hundred and forty-one had AAA, and 19 > 5 cm in diameter were referred for immediate operation. The remaining 122 AAA were offered an annual follow-up. Ninety-nine were later asked for a blood-sample, 83 attended. SEP was determined using an ELISA-technique. The observer was blinded to the SEP result.
Results: The average expansion was 2.6 mm/year, and 10 (8.1) were referred for operation because of a diameter of > 5 cm. SEP were positively correlated to expansion (R = 0.4, F = 14.65). In multiple regression analyses, AAA size, SEP, beta-agonist-treatment, and FEV1, but not beta-blockers, were predictors of expansion. SEP remained a relatively strong predictor (F = 13.13).
Conclusions: Serum-elastin-peptides seem to predict expansion, but a larger, longer study is needed to establish clinical recommendations.