Background: Once melanoma has metastasized to distant sites, the prognosis is usually poor, showing an overall median survival of 6-8 months. Long term survival is extremely rare, and there is still controversy concerning the prognostic significance of therapeutic modalities. The aim of the current study was to identify important prognostic factors associated with Stage IV melanoma.
Methods: The current study was based on data for 3258 melanoma patients, for whom clinical, pathologic, and long term follow-up information was recorded during the period 1976-1996 at the Eberhard-Karls-University in Tuebingen. Germany. The attainment of 2 years' or longer survival time by patients with disseminated melanoma was addressed, and a multivariate analysis of related prognostic factors was performed by logistic regression.
Results: Four hundred forty-two patients (13.6%) developed distant metastasis. The median survival time was 7 months, and the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival rates were 11.9%, 6.7%, and 4.7%, respectively. Forty-five patients had prolonged survival of 2 years or longer. Significantly more females belonged to the group of long term survivors (P = 0.0186). Of the modalities of therapy given, only surgery was associated with prolonged survival (P < 0.0001). Primary metastasis to the skin (P = 0.006), the brain (P = 0.015), more than a single metastatic site (P = 0.002), and Karnofsky performance status of less than 80 (P = 0.0035) were significantly related to short term survival. In addition, subsequent development of two or more new metastatic sites was also associated with short term survival (P = 0.0025).
Conclusions: In the current analysis, prolonged survival of 2 years or longer for patients with disseminated melanoma was shown to depend on gender, site of primary metastasis, number of metastatic sites, and Karnofsky performance status. Of the modalities of therapy given, only surgery significantly influenced survival. However, in a small percentage of patients, long term complete remission was achieved with chemotherapy alone or in combination with surgery, suggesting that such regimens might be curative in selected cases.