Objective: To assess changes in incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in different age groups in New South Wales (NSW) between 1973 and 1992.
Design: Descriptive analysis of data on incidence and mortality from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry and on colorectal cancer diagnostic tests from the Health Insurance Commission.
Main outcome measures: Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates for colon and rectal cancer (defined by codes 153 and 154 in the International classification of diseases, 9th revision) by sex and age group (15-44, 45-59, 60-74 or > or = 75 years) and incidence by cancer spread at diagnosis; age-standardised rates for faecal occult blood tests, sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy.
Results: From 1973 to 1992, colorectal cancer incidence increased significantly in NSW by an average of 2.0% per year in males (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 2.3) and 0.9% in females (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.1). Mortality rates remained nearly constant in males, but fell significantly in females by an average of -1.0% per year (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.7). In the youngest age group (15-44 years) both incidence and mortality rates fell significantly, while rates were stable or rose in older age groups, except for a significant fall in mortality in women aged > or = 75 years. Use of colonoscopy (an early detection method) increased, but a corresponding shift to detection of earlier-stage cancers was not seen.
Conclusions: A reduction in risk factors and better treatment leading to longer survival may have contributed to the falls in incidence in younger people and in mortality in females.