Background: Variceal bleeding is a common, life-threatening complication of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) that remains difficult to predict.
Objective: The aim of this study was to identify whether certain biochemical and hematological parameters may be used as predictors of variceal bleeding in patients with PBC.
Methods: Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to test whether various prognostic factors were significantly associated with the time of first bleeding in 63 patients with proven PBC, of whom 11 had subsequent bleeding.
Results: Both the first available platelet count and the bilirubin level were of significant value in predicting variceal bleeding, but only the platelet count was an independent predictor of bleeding. In the group of patients who subsequently bled, there was a progressive drop in the platelet count over the follow-up period, with a proportional increase in the risk of bleeding; a platelet count below 200 x 10(9)/L was strongly associated with variceal bleeding (p < 0.001). None of the patients with platelet count above 200 x 10(9)/L bled over a total of 136 patient-years follow-up. In the group who did not bleed, no change in platelet count was identified during follow up.
Conclusion: We conclude that the platelet count can be used as a predictor of variceal bleeding in PBC.