Background: There is a growing consensus that there is a shortage of primary care physicians in the United States. Many proposals have been made to increase the national supply of such physicians; however, because regional physician distribution and needs are highly variable, such proposals require evaluation in light of regional physician demands.
Methods: An examination was conducted of the projected supply in the year 2002 of active, nonfederal family physicians and general practitioners (FP/GPs) involved in direct patient care on a state-by-state basis, with particular focus on Connecticut. Data on the 1992 supply and demographics of FP/GPs were obtained from the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. These data together with residency graduation, regional retention, and interstate migration data were used to project state FP/GP supplies in 2002 by estimating additions to and losses from state supplies between 1992 and 2002.
Results: In 1992, Connecticut had relatively fewer and older FP/GPs than the nation as a whole. By 2002, the supply of Connecticut FP/GPs is projected to decrease by 9%. Nine other states have similar potential for a net loss of FP/GPs over the same period.
Conclusions: In the context of a national shortage of primary care physicians, a decline in the supply of FP/GPs in 10 states would be undesirable. Such a decline in the number of FP/GPs in undersupplied states could be averted by increasing the number of graduates from state residency programs, importing FP/GPs from out of state, promoting retention of state FP/GPs and residency graduates, and retraining existing state physicians in family practice or primary care.