Background: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), a prevalent condition, often coexists with intricate metabolic issues and is frequently associated with negative cardiovascular outcomes. We developed a longitudinal prediction model integrating multimodal data for cardiovascular risk stratification of patients with an initial diagnosis of OSAS.
Methods: We reviewed the data of patients with new-onset OSAS who underwent diagnostic polysomnography between 2018-19. Patients were treated using standard treatment regimens according to clinical practice guidelines.
Results: Over a median follow-up of 32 months, 98/729 participants (13.4%) experienced our composite outcome. At a ratio of 7:3, cases were randomly divided into development (n = 510) and validation (n = 219) cohorts. A prediction nomogram was created using six clinical factors - sex, age, diabetes mellitus, history of coronary artery disease, triglyceride-glucose index, and apnea-hypopnea index. The prediction nomogram showed excellent discriminatory power, based on Harrell's C-index values of 0.826 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.779-0.873) for the development cohort and 0.877 (95% CI = 0.824-0.93) for the validation cohort. Moreover, comparing the predicted and observed major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in both development and validation cohorts indicated that the prediction nomogram was well-calibrated. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the good clinical applicability of the prediction nomogram.
Conclusions: Our findings demonstrated the construction of an innovative visualisation tool that utilises various types of data to predict poor outcomes in Chinese patients diagnosed with OSAS, providing accurate and personalised therapy.
Registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR2300075727.
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