Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China

Dedong Wang; Xiangzhi Hu; Huan Xu; Yuanyuan Chen; Suixiang Wang; Guozhen Lin; Lei Yang; Jinbin Chen; Lin Zhang; Pengzhe Qin; Di Wu; Boheng Liang

doi:10.3389/fonc.2024.1387587

Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China

Front Oncol. 2024 May 2:14:1387587. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1387587. eCollection 2024.

Authors

Dedong Wang^#^{1

2

3}, Xiangzhi Hu^#¹, Huan Xu², Yuanyuan Chen², Suixiang Wang², Guozhen Lin², Lei Yang³, Jinbin Chen⁴, Lin Zhang², Pengzhe Qin², Di Wu^{1

2

3}, Boheng Liang²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
² Department of Biostatistics and Cancer Registration, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
³ The State Key Lab of Respiratory Disease, School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
⁴ Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Clinical Rapid Diagnosis and Early Warning of Infectious Diseases, KingMed School of Laboratory Medicine, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Introduction: Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China.

Methods: Data were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period.

Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively.

Conclusions: The early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle.

Keywords: age-period-cohort model; cross-sectional study; joinpoint; liver cancer; trend analysis.

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81803325), Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2021A1515011175, 2024A1515011646), Guangzhou Science and Technology Project (202102080126), Basic Research Project of Key Laboratory of Guangzhou (202102100001, 202206080008), Medical Science and Technology Foundation of Guangdong (A2024733), The Key Project of Medicine Discipline of Guangzhou (2021-2023-12).