Air pollution control and carbon reduction policies: Assessing effectiveness in alleviating PM2.5-associated mortality in China

Yong Li; Juan Peng; Maofei Ni; Yun Bai; Qingying Liu; Chuan Li

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2024.108742

Air pollution control and carbon reduction policies: Assessing effectiveness in alleviating PM_2.5-associated mortality in China

Environ Int. 2024 May 11:188:108742. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108742. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Yong Li¹, Juan Peng², Maofei Ni³, Yun Bai⁴, Qingying Liu⁵, Chuan Li⁶

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang 561113, China.
² Nanan District Ecological Environment Monitoring Station of Chongqing Municipality, Chongqing 401336, China.
³ College of Eco-Environmental Engineering, Guizhou Minzu University, Guiyang 550025, China.
⁴ School of Management Science and Engineering, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China.
⁵ School of Medicine and Health Management, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang 561113, China.
⁶ School of Management Science and Engineering, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China. Electronic address: chuanli@ctbu.edu.cn.

PMID: 38749120
DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108742

Abstract

To confront the challenges posed by air pollution and climate change, China has undertaken significant initiatives to develop strategies that address both issues concurrently. However, the health benefits of these initiatives have not been clearly articulated. In this study, the dynamic changes in health impacts under air pollution and carbon reduction actions in China are evaluated by employing the latest concentration-response models and projected PM_2.5 concentrations under future scenarios. From 2020 to 2060, the enforcement of clean air and climate mitigation policies is expected to increase the percentage of the population living with PM_2.5 concentrations meeting the 10 μg/m³ standard by 79 %. Without the implementation of relevant mitigation measures, PM_2.5-associated deaths are projected to double due to an aging population. In comparison to the 2060 reference scenario, the joint implementation of clean air and carbon neutrality measures is expected to reduce nationwide PM_2.5-associated mortality by 62 %, equivalent to 2.15 (95 % CI: 1.80-2.48) million deaths. Stringent pollution controls are crucial for reducing PM_2.5-associated deaths before 2030, after which carbon neutrality actions become increasingly significant from 2030 to 2060. The challenges of mitigating future PM_2.5-associated deaths vary greatly across regions, showing a critical response to pollution control and carbon reduction. The research proves the effectiveness of China's future air pollution control and carbon reduction policies in mitigating PM_2.5-associated deaths.

Keywords: Air pollution control; Carbon target; China; PM(2.5); Premature mortality.