Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). With the normalization of COVID-19 globally, it is crucial to construct a prediction model that enables clinicians to identify patients at risk for ProLOS based on demographics and serum inflammatory biomarkers.
Methods: The study included hospitalized patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. These patients were randomly grouped into a training (80%) and a test (20%) cohort. The LASSO regression and ten-fold cross-validation method were applied to filter variables. The training cohort utilized multifactorial logistic regression analyses to identify the independent factors of ProLOS in COVID-19 patients. A 4-variable nomogram was created for clinical use. ROC curves were plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the model's discrimination; calibration analysis was planned to assess the validity of the nomogram, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the model.
Results: The results showed that among 310 patients with COVID-19, 80 had extended hospitalization (80/310). Four independent risk factors for COVID-19 patients were identified: age, coexisting chronic respiratory diseases, white blood cell count (WBC), and serum albumin (ALB). A nomogram based on these variables was created. The AUC in the training cohort was 0.808 (95% CI: 0.75 - 0.8671), and the AUC in the test cohort was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.7031 - 0.9282). The model demonstrates good calibration and can be used with threshold probabilities ranging from 0% to 100% to obtain clinical net benefits.
Conclusions: A predictive model has been created to accurately predict whether the hospitalization duration of COVID-19 patients will be prolonged. This model incorporates serum WBC, ALB levels, age, and the presence of chronic respiratory system diseases.