Perinatal affective disorders are common, but standard screening measures reliant on subjective self-reports might not be sufficient to identify pregnant women at-risk for developing postpartum depression and anxiety. Lower heart rate variability (HRV) has been shown to be associated with affective disorders. The current exploratory study aimed to evaluate the predictive utility of late pregnancy HRV measurements of postpartum affective symptoms. A subset of participants from the BASIC study (Uppsala, Sweden) took part in a sub-study at pregnancy week 38 where HRV was measured before and after a mild stressor (n = 122). Outcome measures were 6-week postpartum depression and anxiety symptoms as quantified by the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI). In total, 112 women were included in a depression outcome analysis and 106 women were included in an anxiety outcome analysis. Group comparisons indicated that lower pregnancy HRV was associated with depressive or anxious symptomatology at 6 weeks postpartum. Elastic net logistic regression analyses indicated that HRV indices alone were not predictive of postpartum depression or anxiety outcomes, but HRV indices were selected as predictors in a combined model with background and pregnancy variables. ROC curves for the combined models gave an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.93 for the depression outcome and an AUC of 0.83 for the anxiety outcome. HRV indices predictive of postpartum depression generally differed from those predictive of postpartum anxiety. HRV indices did not significantly improve prediction models comprised of psychological measures only in women with pregnancy depression or anxiety.
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