We utilize the phased rollout of COVID-19 vaccines by exact birth date in South Korea as a natural experiment for testing risk compensation. People may resume face-to-face social activities following vaccination because they perceive lower risk of infection. Applying a regression discontinuity design based on birth date cutoffs for vaccine eligibility, we find no evidence of risk-compensating behaviors, as measured by large, high-frequency data from credit card and airline companies as well as survey data. We find some evidence of self-selection into vaccine take-up based on perception toward vaccine effectiveness and side effects, but the treatment effects do not differ between compliers and never-takers.
Keywords: COVID‐19; risk compensation; social distancing; vaccine take‐up.
© 2024 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.