Short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentration by hybrid neural network based on sequence decomposition

PLoS One. 2024 May 10;19(5):e0299603. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0299603. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of PM2.5 concentrations serves as a critical tool for mitigating air pollution. This study introduces a novel hybrid prediction model, termed MIC-CEEMDAN-CNN-BiGRU, for short-term forecasting of PM2.5 concentrations using a 24-hour historical data window. Utilizing the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for feature selection, the model integrates Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Bidirectional Recurrent Gated Neural Network (BiGRU) to optimize predictive accuracy. We used 2016 PM2.5 monitoring data from Beijing, China as the empirical basis of this study and compared the model with several deep learning frameworks. RNN, LSTM, GRU, and other hybrid models based on GRU, respectively. The experimental results show that the prediction results of the hybrid model proposed in this question are more accurate than those of other models, and the R2 of the hybrid model proposed in this paper improves the R2 by nearly 5 percentage points compared with that of the single model; reduces the MAE by nearly 5 percentage points; and reduces the RMSE by nearly 11 percentage points. The results show that the hybrid prediction model proposed in this study is more accurate than other models in predicting PM2.5.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Air Pollutants / analysis
  • Air Pollution / analysis
  • Beijing
  • Environmental Monitoring / methods
  • Forecasting / methods
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Particulate Matter* / analysis

Substances

  • Particulate Matter
  • Air Pollutants

Grants and funding

This research was financially supported by The Open Key Laboratory Project of Anhui Province (https://en.ahu.edu.cn) in the form of a grant (IBES2021KF07) received by XW. This study was also financially supported by the Project of Outstanding Talents in Universities of Anhui Provincial in the form of a grant (gxyq2022075) received by XW. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.