Use of the combination of spirometry, arterial blood gas analysis and overnight oximetry to predict the outcomes of patients affected by motor neuron disease: The Milan-Torin respiratory score (Mi-To-RS)

Abstract

Background and purpose: The use of multiple tests, including spirometry, arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis and overnight oximetry (OvOx), is highly recommended to monitor the respiratory function of patients with motor neuron disease (MND). In this study, we propose a composite score to simplify the respiratory management of MND patients and better stratify their prognosis.

Materials and methods: We screened the clinical charts of 471 non-ventilated MND patients referred to the Neuro-rehabilitation Unit of the San Raffaele Scientific Institute of Milan (January 2001-December 2019), collecting spirometric, ABG and OvOx parameters. To evaluate the prognostic role of each measurement, univariate Cox regression for death/tracheostomy was performed, and the variables associated with survival were selected to design a scoring system. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were then carried out to evaluate the prognostic role of the score. Finally, results were replicated in an independent cohort from the Turin ALS Center.

Results: The study population included 450 patients. Six measurements were found to be significantly associated with survival and were selected to design a scoring system (maximum score = 8 points). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significant stratification of survival and time to non-invasive mechanical ventilation adaptation according to score values, and multivariate analysis confirmed the independent effect of the respiratory score on survival of each cohort.

Conclusion: Forced vital capacity, ABG and OvOx parameters provide complementary information for the respiratory management and prognosis of MND patients and the combination of these parameters into a single score might help neurologists predict prognosis and guide decisions on the timing of the implementation of different diagnostic or therapeutic approaches.

Keywords: ALS; NIMV; amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; blood gas analysis; neuromuscular diseases; non‐invasive ventilation; prognosis; respiratory failure; spirometry.