Although NPM1-mutated acute myeloid leukemia (AML) carries a generally favorable prognosis, many patients still relapse and die. Previous studies identified several molecular and clinical features associated with poor outcome, however only FLT3-ITD mutation and adverse karyotype are currently used for risk stratification due to inconsistent results and uncertainty around how other factors should influence treatment, particularly given the strong prognostic impact of post-induction measurable residual disease (MRD). Here we analyzed a large group of patients with NPM1mut AML enrolled in prospective trials (NCRI AML17 and AML19, n=1357) to delineate the impact of baseline molecular and clinical features, post induction MRD status and treatment intensity on outcome. FLT3-ITD (HR 1.28, 95%CI 1.01-1.63), DNMT3A (HR 1.65, 95%CI 1.32-2.05), WT1 (HR 1.74, 95%CI 1272-2.38) and non-ABD NPM1 mutations (HR 1.64, 95%CI 1.22-2.21) were independently associated with poorer overall survival (OS). These factors were also strongly associated with MRD positivity. For patients achieving MRD negativity, these mutations (except FLT3-ITD) were associated with an increased cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) and poorer OS. However, apart from the few patients with adverse cytogenetics, we could not identify any group of MRD negative patients with a CIR >40% or with benefit from allograft in first remission. Intensified chemotherapy with the FLAG-Ida regimen was associated with improved outcomes in all subgroups, with greater benefits observed in the highest risk molecular subgroups.
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