The impact of housing prices and land financing on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese 277 cities at the prefecture level and above

PLoS One. 2024 Apr 30;19(4):e0302631. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302631. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

With the rapid progress of urbanization in China, the real estate industry, characterized by a long industrial chain, has become a pillar industry for economic development. Therefore, we inspect the nexus between land finance, housing prices, and economic growth. For this purpose, we use the panel data of 277 cities at the prefecture level or above in China from 2011 to 2019, and empirically examine it by using the Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) model. The results show that there is a causal relationship between housing prices and economic growth. Housing prices promote economic growth in the short term and inhibit it in the long term. Both economic growth and housing prices have a significant impact on land finance. The economic growth show a significantly positive impact, while housing prices promote land finance in the short term with a long-term trend from positive to negative. This is the first study that tries to probe the relationship between urban housing prices, land finance, and economic growth by considering 277 prefecture-level and above cities in China. To promote the stable development of the regional economy, local governments need to overcome their dependence on the housing market and land finance and promote the healthy development of the housing market.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • China
  • Cities*
  • Commerce / economics
  • East Asian People
  • Economic Development*
  • Housing* / economics
  • Humans
  • Urbanization / trends

Grants and funding

This work was supported by grants from the Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Hunan (2022JJ30116), Think Tank Special Project of Social Science Fund of Hunan Province (19ZWB63), and Base Project of Social Science Fund of Hunan Province (21JD041).