Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Daniella Hirschfeld; David Behar; Robert J Nicholls; Niamh Cahill; Thomas James; Benjamin P Horton; Michelle E Portman; Rob Bell; Matthew Campo; Miguel Esteban; Bronwyn Goble; Munsur Rahman; Kwasi Appeaning Addo; Faiz Ahmed Chundeli; Monique Aunger; Orly Babitsky; Anders Beal; Ray Boyle; Jiayi Fang; Amir Gohar; Susan Hanson; Saul Karamesines; M J Kim; Hilary Lohmann; Kathy McInnes; Nobuo Mimura; Doug Ramsay; Landis Wenger; Hiromune Yokoki

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Commun Earth Environ. 2023;4(1):102. doi: 10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x. Epub 2023 Apr 3.

Authors

Daniella Hirschfeld¹, David Behar², Robert J Nicholls³, Niamh Cahill^{4

5}, Thomas James⁶, Benjamin P Horton^{7

8}, Michelle E Portman⁹, Rob Bell^{10

11}, Matthew Campo¹², Miguel Esteban¹³, Bronwyn Goble¹⁴, Munsur Rahman¹⁵, Kwasi Appeaning Addo¹⁶, Faiz Ahmed Chundeli¹⁷, Monique Aunger¹⁸, Orly Babitsky⁹, Anders Beal¹⁹, Ray Boyle²⁰, Jiayi Fang²¹, Amir Gohar²², Susan Hanson^{3

23}, Saul Karamesines¹, M J Kim²⁴, Hilary Lohmann²⁵, Kathy McInnes²⁶, Nobuo Mimura²⁷, Doug Ramsay²⁸, Landis Wenger¹, Hiromune Yokoki²⁹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Utah State University, 4005 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-4005 USA.
² San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA USA.
³ Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
⁴ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland.
⁵ Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth University, Kildare, Ireland.
⁶ Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, Canada.
⁷ Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
⁸ Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
⁹ MarCoast Ecosystems Integration Lab, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, 32000 Israel.
¹⁰ Bell Adapt Ltd, Hamilton, 3210 New Zealand.
¹¹ Environmental Planning Programme, School of Social Sciences, University of Waikato, Te Whare Wananga o Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.
¹² Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ USA.
¹³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.
¹⁴ The Oceanographic Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.
¹⁵ Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, 1000 Bangladesh.
¹⁶ University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana.
¹⁷ School of Planning and Architecture, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh India.
¹⁸ Geological Survey of Canada, Lands and Minerals Sector, Natural Resources Canada 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, ON Canada.
¹⁹ Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC USA.
²⁰ College of Environmental Design, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley California, USA.
²¹ Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 311121 China.
²² University of the West of England, Bristol, UK.
²³ Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Southampton, Boldrewood Campus, Burgess Road, Southampton, UK.
²⁴ Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries affairs, Busan, Republic of Korea.
²⁵ Department of Planning and Natural Resources, St. Croix, USVI USA.
²⁶ Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, VIC Australia.
²⁷ Global and Local Environment Co-creation Institute, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan.
²⁸ National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, New Zealand.
²⁹ Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan.

Abstract

Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages - Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.

Keywords: Climate-change adaptation; Environmental studies; Geography.