Comparing indicators of disease severity among patients presenting to hospital for urinary tract infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Selina Patel; Martin Gill; Andrew Hayward; Susan Hopkins; Andrew Copas; Laura Shallcross

doi:10.1093/jacamr/dlae067

Comparing indicators of disease severity among patients presenting to hospital for urinary tract infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

JAC Antimicrob Resist. 2024 Apr 24;6(2):dlae067. doi: 10.1093/jacamr/dlae067. eCollection 2024 Apr.

Authors

Selina Patel^{1

2}, Martin Gill³, Andrew Hayward^{1

2}, Susan Hopkins^{2

4}, Andrew Copas⁵, Laura Shallcross^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.
² UK Health Security Agency, London, UK.
³ University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK.
⁴ Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK.
⁵ Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.

Abstract

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, patients may have delayed seeking healthcare for urinary tract infections (UTIs). This could have resulted in more severe presentation to hospital and different antibiotic usage.

Objectives: We explored evidence for such changes through existing national indicators of prescribing, and routine clinical data collected in the electronic health record (EHR).

Methods: We carried out a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting to two UK hospitals for UTIs, comparing two indicators of disease severity on admission before and during the pandemic: intravenous (IV) antibiotic use, and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). We developed regression models to estimate the effect of the pandemic on each outcome, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity and index of multiple deprivation.

Results: During the pandemic, patients were less likely to present to hospital for UTI with NEWS2 of 0 or 1 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52-0.85] compared with before, more likely to present with score 2 (aOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.18-1.94), whereas the likelihood of presenting with a NEWS2 of >2 remained the same (aOR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.87-1.29). We did not find evidence that this limited increase in disease severity resulted in changes to IV antibiotic use on admission (adjusted risk ratio: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.91-1.15).

Conclusions: There may have been a small increase in disease severity at hospital presentation for UTI during the pandemic, which can be detected using routine data and not through national indicators of prescribing. Further research is required to validate these findings and understand whether routine data could support a more nuanced understanding of local antimicrobial prescribing practices.