Aims: Current understanding of the prognosis for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and overlapping cardio-renal-metabolic components, specifically heart failure (HF) and diabetes mellitus (DM), remains limited. While previous studies have explored the interactions between CKD, HF, and DM, they have predominantly focused on cohorts of HF or DM patients. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the long-term outcomes and treatment patterns in a cohort of CKD patients, particularly those with coexisting HF and DM.
Methods and results: We analysed data from the Swedish national CKD patient cohort, the Swedish Renal Registry, with a follow-up period extending up to 10 years. The study examined the risks of all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE)-defined as a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, hospitalization for congestive HF, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular death-and the initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards and competing risk models. Among the 27 647 patients, 48% had CKD alone, 12% had CKD with HF, 27% had CKD with DM, and 13% had CKD with both HF and DM. After 5 years, mortality rates were 23% for patients with CKD, 30% for those with CKD/DM, 54% for CKD/HF, and 55% for CKD/HF/DM. The 10 year absolute risk of MACE was 28% for CKD alone, 35% for CKD/DM, 67% for CKD/HF, and 73% for CKD/HF/DM. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was approximately three times higher in patients with any HF combination, with HRs of 2.57 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.43-2.71] for CKD/HF and 3.22 (95% CI 3.05-3.39) for CKD/HF/DM, compared with CKD alone. The impact of HF on MACE prognosis was even more pronounced, with adjusted sub-hazard ratios (SHRs) of 3.33 (95% CI 3.14-3.53) for CKD/HF and 4.26 (95% CI 4.04-4.50) for CKD/HF/DM. Additionally, CKD patients diagnosed with HF were less likely to commence KRT, and the risk of death prior to KRT initiation was roughly twice as high for these groups, with SHRs of 2.05 (95% CI 1.93-2.18) for CKD + HF and 2.43 (95% CI 2.29-2.58) for CKD + HF + DM.
Conclusions: In a cohort of CKD patients, having HF contributes substantially to increased mortality and the risk of MACE, and these patients are less likely to start KRT. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted therapeutic strategies and management plans for CKD patients, particularly those with concurrent HF, to enhance patient prognosis.
Keywords: Cardio‐renal‐metabolic; Chronic kidney disease; Diabetes mellitus; Heart failure; Outcome; Prognosis.
© 2024 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.