Refracture and mortality risk in the elderly with osteoporotic fractures: the AGES-Reykjavik study

Anitha D Praveen; Thor Aspelund; Stephen J Ferguson; Sigurður Sigurðsson; Vilmundur Guðnason; Halldór Pálsson; David Matchar; Benedikt Helgason

doi:10.1007/s00198-024-07096-3

Refracture and mortality risk in the elderly with osteoporotic fractures: the AGES-Reykjavik study

Osteoporos Int. 2024 Apr 24. doi: 10.1007/s00198-024-07096-3. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Anitha D Praveen¹, Thor Aspelund^{2

3}, Stephen J Ferguson^{4

5}, Sigurður Sigurðsson³, Vilmundur Guðnason^{2

3}, Halldór Pálsson⁶, David Matchar⁷, Benedikt Helgason^{4

5}

Affiliations

¹ Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), Future Health Technologies, Singapore-ETH Centre, Singapore, Singapore. anitha.dpraveen@sec.ethz.ch.
² Centre of Public Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
³ The Icelandic Heart Association Research Institute, Kopavogur, Iceland.
⁴ Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), Future Health Technologies, Singapore-ETH Centre, Singapore, Singapore.
⁵ Institute for Biomechanics, ETH-Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
⁶ Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
⁷ Duke-NUS Medical School, Health Services and Systems Research, Singapore, Singapore.

PMID: 38658459
DOI: 10.1007/s00198-024-07096-3

Abstract

There is imminent refracture risk in elderly individuals for up to six years, with a decline thereafter except in women below 75 who face a constant elevated risk. Elderly men with fractures face the highest mortality risk, particularly those with hip and vertebral fractures. Targeted monitoring and treatment strategies are recommended.

Purpose: Current management and interventions for osteoporotic fractures typically focus on bone mineral density loss, resulting in suboptimal evaluation of fracture risk. The aim of the study is to understand the progression of fractures to refractures and mortality in the elderly using multi-state models to better target those at risk.

Methods: This prospective, observational study analysed data from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort of Icelandic elderly, using multi-state models to analyse the evolution of fractures into refractures and mortality, and to estimate the probability of future events in subjects based on prognostic factors.

Results: At baseline, 4778 older individuals aged 65 years and older were included. Elderly men, and elderly women above 80 years of age, had a distinct imminent refracture risk that lasted between 2-6 years, followed by a sharp decline. However, elderly women below 75 continued to maintain a nearly constant refracture risk profile for ten years. Hip (30-63%) and vertebral (24-55%) fractures carried the highest 5-year mortality burden for elderly men and women, regardless of age, and for elderly men over 80, lower leg fractures also posed a significant mortality risk.

Conclusion: The risk of refracture significantly increases in the first six years following the initial fracture. Elderly women, who experience fractures at a younger age, should be closely monitored to address their long-term elevated refracture risk. Elderly men, especially those with hip and vertebral fractures, face substantial mortality risk and require prioritized monitoring and treatment.

Keywords: Fracture; Imminent Risk; Multi-state Models; Older People; Osteoporosis.