Predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: Current approaches and future directions

Aida Metri; Nikhil Bush; Vikesh K Singh

doi:10.1016/j.sopen.2024.03.012

Predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: Current approaches and future directions

Surg Open Sci. 2024 Mar 27:19:109-117. doi: 10.1016/j.sopen.2024.03.012. eCollection 2024 Jun.

Authors

Aida Metri¹, Nikhil Bush¹, Vikesh K Singh¹

Affiliation

¹ Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America.

Abstract

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden-onset inflammatory disease of the pancreas. The severity of AP is classified into mild, moderate, and severe categories based on the presence and persistence of organ failure. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. It requires early recognition for appropriate timely management. Prognostic scores for predicting SAP incorporating many clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters have been developed in the past. However, all of these prognostic scores have low positive predictive value for SAP and some of these scores require >24 h for assessment. There is a need to develop biomarkers that can accurately identify patients at risk for SAP early in the course of the presentation. In this review, we aim to provide a summary of the most commonly utilized prognostic scores for AP and discuss future directions.

Keywords: Acute pancreatitis; Mortality; Organ failure; Prognosis; Severity score.