Assessing the decarbonization of electricity generation in major emitting countries by 2030 and 2050: Transition to a high share renewable energy mix

Sandra Chukwudumebi Obiora; Olusola Bamisile; Yihua Hu; Dilber Uzun Ozsahin; Humphrey Adun

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28770

Assessing the decarbonization of electricity generation in major emitting countries by 2030 and 2050: Transition to a high share renewable energy mix

Heliyon. 2024 Apr 7;10(8):e28770. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28770. eCollection 2024 Apr 30.

Authors

Sandra Chukwudumebi Obiora^{1

2}, Olusola Bamisile^{3

4}, Yihua Hu⁵, Dilber Uzun Ozsahin^{6

7

8}, Humphrey Adun⁸

Affiliations

¹ School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China.
² Leeds Business School, Leeds Beckett University, Leeds, LS1 3HE, United Kingdom.
³ Electrical Engineering Department, College of Nuclear Science and Automation Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Sichuan P.R., Chengdu, 611731, China.
⁴ Energy and Environment Division, CEPMLP, University of Dundee, Scotland, United Kingdom.
⁵ Electrical Engineering, Kings College London, London, SE1 8WA, United Kingdom.
⁶ Department of Medical Diagnostic Imaging, College of Health Science, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, 27272, United Arab Emirates.
⁷ Research Institute for Medical and Health Sciences, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, 27272, United Arab Emirates.
⁸ Operational Research Centre in Healthcare, Near East University, TRNC Mersin 10, Nicosia, 99138, Turkey.

Abstract

The urgent need to mitigate the severe environmental impacts of climate change necessitates a transition to a low-carbon energy infrastructure, crucial for decarbonization and achieving global sustainability goals. This study investigates the decarbonization trajectories of five major economies and significant carbon emitters: the United States of America (USA), China, Japan, Germany, and India. We focus on evaluating two decarbonization scenarios for power generation. Scenario 1 explores the use of a generic storage system for reducing critical excess electricity production (CEEP), maintaining the same thermal power plant capacity as in the reference year 2021. In contrast, Scenario 2 models thermal power plants to meet the exact electricity demand without introducing a new electricity storage system. The primary aim is to assess the feasibility and implications of achieving a 100% share of renewable and nuclear energy by 2030 and 2050 in these countries. EnergyPLAN software was utilized to model and simulate the electricity systems of these countries. The two scenarios represent different degrees of renewable energy integration, demonstrating possible transitional pathways towards an environmentally friendly electricity generation system. The study provides a comparative analysis of the outcomes for each country, focusing on carbon emissions reduction and the impact on annual total costs in 2030 and 2050. Results show that by 2030, China could reduce its emissions by 88.5% and 85.14% in Scenarios 1 and 2, relative to 2021 levels. From the two scenarios considered in all the countries, India records the highest percentage reduction while Germany has the least percentage emission in reference to 2021, with a potential decrease of 90.63% and 52.42% respectively. By 2050, carbon emissions in the USA will be reduced by 83% and 79.8% using Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 decarbonization pathways. This research significantly contributes to understanding the decarbonization potential of global electricity generation. It provides vital data for policymakers, energy planners, and stakeholders involved in developing sustainable energy policies.

Keywords: Decarbonization; Energy transition; EnergyPLAN; Low-carbon electricity; Renewable energy.