Aims: The utility of growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) in predicting long-term adverse outcomes in heart failure (HF) patients is not well established. This study explored the relationship between GDF-15 levels and adverse outcomes in HF patients across various ejection fraction (EF) phenotypes associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and evaluated the added prognostic value of incorporating GDF-15 into the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score-based model.
Methods and results: This single-centre cohort study included 823 HF patients, categorized into 230 (27.9%) reduced EF (HFrEF), 271 (32.9%) mid-range EF (HFmrEF), and 322 (39.1%) preserved EF (HFpEF) groups. The median age was 68.0 years (range: 56.0-77.0), and 245 (29.8%) were females. Compared with the HFrEF and HFmrEF groups, the HFpEF group had a higher GDF-15 concentration (P = 0.002) and a higher MAGGIC risk score (P < 0.001). We examined the associations between GDF-15 levels and the risks of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization using Cox regression models. The C-index, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) metrics were employed to assess the incremental prognostic value. During the 9.4 year follow-up period, 425 patients died, and 484 were rehospitalized due to HF. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that elevated GDF-15 levels were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-1.54; P < 0.001] and HF rehospitalization (HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.57-1.95; P < 0.001) across all HF phenotypes. This association remained significant when GDF-15 was treated as a categorical variable (high GDF-15 group: all-cause death: HR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.40-2.14; P < 0.001; HF rehospitalization: HR = 3.37, 95% CI: 2.73-4.15; P < 0.001). Inclusion of GDF-15 in the MAGGIC risk score-based model provided additional prognostic value for all HF patients (Δ C-index = 0.021, 95% CI: 0.002-0.041; IDI = 0.011, 95% CI: 0.001-0.025; continuous NRI = 0.489, 95% CI: 0.174-0.629) and HF rehospitalization (Δ C-index = 0.034, 95% CI: 0.005-0.063; IDI = 0.021, 95% CI: 0.007-0.032; continuous NRI = 0.307, 95% CI: 0.147-0.548), particularly in the HFpEF subgroup.
Conclusions: GDF-15 is identified as an independent risk factor for adverse outcomes in HF patients across the entire EF spectrum in the context of CHD. Integrating GDF-15 into the MAGGIC risk score-based model enhances its prognostic capability for adverse outcomes in the general HF population. This incremental prognostic effect was observed specifically in the HFpEF subgroup and not in other subgroups.
Keywords: Growth differentiation factor‐15; Heart failure with mid‐range ejection fraction; Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; The Meta‐Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure risk score.
© 2024 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.