Projecting trends in the disease burden of adult edentulism in China between 2020 and 2030: a systematic study based on the global burden of disease

Xiaofeng Qin; Li Chen; Xihua Yuan; Dan Lin; Qiulin Liu; Xiaojuan Zeng; Fei Ma

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2024.1367138

Projecting trends in the disease burden of adult edentulism in China between 2020 and 2030: a systematic study based on the global burden of disease

Front Public Health. 2024 Apr 4:12:1367138. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1367138. eCollection 2024.

Authors

Xiaofeng Qin^#^{1

2}, Li Chen^#¹, Xihua Yuan³, Dan Lin¹, Qiulin Liu¹, Xiaojuan Zeng¹, Fei Ma¹

Affiliations

¹ Guangxi Key Laboratory of Oral and Maxillofacial Rehabilitation and Reconstruction, College of Stomatology, Hospital of Stomatology, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.
² Guangxi Clinical Research Center for Craniofacial Deformity, College of Stomatology, Hospital of Stomatology, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.
³ Department of Dermatology and Venerology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Purpose: This study was based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and aimed to analyze the trend of disease burden for complete edentulism in Chinese adults between 1990 and 2030, and to provide valuable information for the development of more effective management and preventive measures.

Methods: Data on Chinese adults with complete edentulism from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed using GHDx data. Descriptive analyses were used to analyze changes in the prevalence and burden of complete edentulism, gender and age distribution between 1990 and 2019. In addition, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the trend of disease burden for Chinese adults with complete edentulism between 2020 and 2030.

Results: The incidence, prevalence, and rate of YLDs in adults with complete edentulism in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the incidence was 251.20 per 100,000, the prevalence was 4512.78 per 100,000, and the YLDs were 123.44 per 100,000, marking increases of 20.58, 94.18, and 93.12% from 1990. Males experienced a higher increase than females. However, the standardized rates decreased over the same period. The ARIMA model predicts a subsequent upward and then downward trend for all indicators between 2019 and 2030, except for the standardized incidence rate which remained essentially unchanged. Specifically, the incidence is predicted to decrease from 388.93 to 314.40 per 100,000, prevalence from 4512.78 to 3049.70 per 100,000, and YLDs from 123.44 to 103.44 per 100,000. The standardized prevalence and YLDs rates are also expected to decrease.

Conclusion: The burden of complete edentulism in China is projected to show an increasing trend from 2020 to 2022 and a decreasing trend from 2023 to 2030. Despite the decline in the burden of disease associated with complete edentulism in China, many problems remain to be solved.

Keywords: GBD; YLDs; complete edentulism; incidence; prevalence.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Adult
China / epidemiology
Cost of Illness*
Female
Global Burden of Disease*
Humans
Incidence
Male
Prevalence

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by National Clinical Key Specialty Construction Project (No. CZ000037), the Guangxi Scholarship Fund of Department of Education of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the People’s Republic of China and Foundation for The Basic Research Ability Improvement of University Young and Middle-Aged Teachers by The Ministry of Education of Guangxi (No. 2020ky03042).