Validation of SCORE2 on a sample from the Russian population and adaptation for the very high cardiovascular disease risk region

Abstract

SCORE2 (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2) is a risk assessment scale for cardiovascular events, presented in 2021 by the European Society of Cardiology. Both for training and validation of the SCORE2 model, representative samples from the Russian population were not used. Therefore, we aimed to validate SCORE2 on a such sample. For this purpose, we used a sample from the ESSE-RF epidemiological study consisting of 7251 participants aged 40-69 years without history of CVDs. We performed the validation by comparing SCORE2 risk estimates for ESSE-RF participants with the observed incidence of cardiovascular events in the study, adjusted for event information losses. The validation demonstrated that SCORE2 risk estimates were accurate for Russian men and inaccurate for Russian women. Together with the quantitative assessment of risk, SCORE2 offers its interpretation in terms of 10-year CVD risk group: low-moderate, high, and very high. For Russian men we considered the original interpretation of the SCORE2 estimates to be questionable because almost none of the men would be categorized as having "low-to-moderate" 10-year CVD risk. This problem would be typical for all countries of the very high CVD risk region. Therefore, we proposed a new interpretation of the SCORE2 risk estimates for men from the very high risk region. According to the proposed interpretation, the fraction of men in ESSE-RF in "low-to-moderate" 10-year CVD risk increased from 2% to 18% and the fraction of men in "very high" CVD risk decreased from 63% to 20% as compared to the original interpretation. The proposed interpretation would allow a more personalized approach to CVD treatment and optimize the burden on primary healthcare in the very high risk region countries.